Literally speaking, anytime you buy or sell the market you have a 50/50 shot of price going up/down.
BUT, the goal is to find edges on the chart where we believe we have a greater than 50/50 chance.
We find edges by using Content and Context.
In this live trade here on /ES Futures, notice how severely overbought price was on the 4-hour chart, the price was at a 50% Fibonacci retracement AND at the BTG +1 Deviation. In our opinion, because of all of this Content and Context, we believed we had a greater than 50/50 chance of price going down rather than continue going up.
This is literally all trading is. Finding edges and exploiting them.